On 16 January we published Securing future workforce supply: obstetrics and gynaecology stocktake review. The review, commissioned by the Department of Health (DH) and Health Education England (HEE), has a particular focus on fully trained obstetricians and gynaecologists with a certificate of completion of training (CCT holders), typically employed as consultants.
The CfWI has estimated the future level of workforce supply that would be needed to maintain current levels of O&G service on a per-patient basis. It has also considered the number of higher specialty training numbers required to ensure supply is broadly in balance with expected patient demand by the end of the projection period (2028). Additionally, the CfWI has also provided an estimate about the O&G workforce that would be required to deliver a robust consultant-led seven-day service.
Our research into the O&G workforce in England suggests:
- Demand for O&G CCT holders is forecasted grow to around 2,180 FTEs by 2028 – a 17 per cent increase from 2013 levels
- In parallel, the number of O&G CCT holders is projected to grow to around 2,840 (FTE) by 2028 – a 53 per cent increase on 2013 levels.
- If the ST1 intake is held constant at the current six-year average (about 204 new doctors in training per year) there is a risk of workforce oversupply until 2028.
- While there are no current national plans for seven-day consultant delivered obstetric services, further modelling assumptions estimate that between 180 and 500 (FTE) additional CCT holders may be required to provide for a possible seven-day target for obstetrics, which will mean the oversupply remains a risk.
These key findings have led the CfWI to suggest that HEE considers an immediate, substantial and sustained reduction in ST1 recruitment to reduce the future levels of CCT oversupply and to narrow the supply-demand gap over the longer term.The CfWI suggests that a further workforce review be conducted before the end of 2017.
Read the full report here: http://www.cfwi.org.uk/publications/obstetrics-and-gynaecology-stocktake