This work was commissioned by the Department of Health and Health Education England and sets out to forecast and analyse the future supply and demand for the psychiatrist workforce in England between 2013 and 2033.
Our research suggests:
- Total patient demand for psychiatrists with a certificate of completion of training (‘CCT holders’) could grow by 7 per cent by 2033 from 2013 to around 4,340 full time equivalent (FTE) staff.
- In contrast, we project supply will only increase by around 2 per cent to around 4,160 FTEs by 2033. This suggests that if recent trends in trainee numbers continue, the supply of the consultant psychiatrist workforce may not be sufficient to meet future patient demand.
- In particular, psychiatry of old age faces the greatest risk of undersupply of the six main specialties of consultant psychiatrists. We believe that there could also be a workforce undersupply in general adult psychiatry, child and adolescent psychiatry and psychiatry of learning disability for around 10 years without intervention. Areas of potential oversupply include forensic psychiatry and medical psychotherapy.
The report therefore suggests a need for HEE to consider options to:
- increase the number of doctors in training taking up posts at core psychiatry training level (CPT1)
- improve progression into higher specialty training (ST4) from core psychiatry training (CPT3), particularly in under-served LETB regions
- improve retention of consultant psychiatrists by working with the Royal College of Psychiatrists (RCPsyh)
- consider appropriate strategies such as run-through training programmes for the geographical areas most at risk of undersupply (with the RCPsych)
- consider a wider review of the current psychiatry training programme to ensure it is robust and enhances development of clinical skills, knowledge and expertise where applicable in order to encourage retention of psychiatrists in training.
The following links will take you to the reports: