This stage sees the development of a model which aims to project demand and supply across the futures described by the scenarios.
There are three stages:
- Data and assumptions: This is where we input our data. There are four kinds of input we use:
- Baseline data: this includes facts we know such as current training and workforce numbers.
- Assumptions: predictable trends and assumptions where key data is not available or of poor quality.
- Parameters we can control: related to the policy choices which will secure adequate supply to meet demand.
- Intrinsically uncertain parameters: these may vary by scenario generated in the Delphi process.
- Policy levers: Policy levers are the parameters that decision makers can control to ensure that workforce supply meets future requirements, for example yearly student intake, length of training, numbers entering employment after training. A critical part of workforce modelling is defining what policy levers can be varied, and in what combination, and testing them against scenarios to see the effects on supply and demand.
- Demand and supply model: We use an award-winning system dynamics modelling methodology to calculate workforce demand and supply.