Horizon 2035 - Future demand for skills: initial results
This report highlighted interim findings from Horizon 2035, a key piece of work to help consider how a series of challenges and opportunities may combine in the future and impact the health, public health and social care workforce.
The report presents preliminary findings of this research programme as follows:
- Based on our current understanding, we are projecting that demand for health and care skills could grow more than twice as fast as overall population growth by 2035.
- Much of this growth is driven by increasing healthcare and support demands associated with long term conditions. This relates both to the ageing population and a projected increase in prevalence across age groups.
- The initial results also suggest that the future profile of demand may be profoundly different to the picture of demand today. For example, growth in demand for lower ‘levels’ of skill – such as those associated with unpaid care, support carers and NHS bands 1-4 - are projected to substantially outstrip growth in demand for higher skill levels associated with medical and dental professionals.
- Quantifying and projecting the whole health, social care and public health system in terms of the component workforce skills can reveal new insights for workforce planning. These insights can surmount notions of workforces and sectors and can help to align the skill mix of the future with the case mix of the future.