Scenario generation: Enhancing scenario generation and quantification
This technical paper addresses improvements to the scenario generation stage of the Centre for Workforce Intelligence’s robust workforce planning framework, in particular on scenario generation and quantification. The methods were tested on the Horizon 2035 project – the purpose of which was to consider different workforce futures for health, social care and public health 20 years from now. It includes the following:
- a short review of the history of scenarios and scenario planning, the different types of scenario and methods for generating them
- a formal approach for creating a set of scenarios to present alternative, plausible and challenging visions of the future to inform workforce planning
- a method for checking the consistency of scenarios, so that only consistent ones are taken forward for quantification and modelling.
- a best-practice method for eliciting uncertain scenario parameters (all scenarios contain parameters that are inherently unknowable but where values need to be defined for modelling and simulation; this requires input from experts using a formal and defined protocol)
- an approach for generating scenarios at different levels of scale, where higher-level scenarios frame scenarios at a lower level of detail, enhancing the coherence of the overall set
- substantive improvements to the scenario generation process as a result of the above, and areas for future research.